Gold has always been considered a safe haven asset specially during uncertain times. And this was very well justified by the life time highs it hit by end of January 2026.
As per gold price today, Gold’s case as a safe haven remains as strong as ever despite the Iran war pullback, and Fed policy will likely remain supportive of the yellow metal, while exploration budgets for both gold and silver continue to rise.
During 2026, the gold price has been exposed to both fundamental and speculative demand that is antecedent to these price moves. As per live gold price, most notably, over the trading days immediately following the beginning of the US military operation in Iran, 2 and 3 March, gold prices, along with stocks, fell.
While the cease fire talks are still on hold, uncertainty prevails in the market. US has a different stand while Iran has been contradicting all of it. Amidst all of this, Investors remain worried about prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, expectations for a less dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) could limit deeper USD losses and cap the non-yielding yellow metal.
The U.S. and Iran are still facing tensions. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran will continue so peace talks can go on, but Iran insists it never asked for an extension. The U.S. is keeping a naval blockade on Iranian ports, while Iran wants that blockade lifted before talks restart. This ongoing conflict makes investors stick with the U.S. dollar, since it’s seen as safe during uncertain times.
At the same time, Kevin Warsh, who is nominated to lead the Federal Reserve, spoke in a Senate hearing. He sounded slightly “hawkish,” meaning he may lean toward tighter monetary policy. He also said he would act independently from Trump and hasn’t promised to cut interest rates.
On top of that, strong U.S. Retail Sales numbers show the economy is doing well, leading economists to raise their growth forecasts. All of this makes the dollar stronger and could slow down any rise in gold prices, since gold usually benefits when the dollar is weak.
Moving ahead, there isn’t any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Wednesday, leaving the USD at the mercy of geopolitical headlines. Fresh developments surrounding the US-Iran saga might continue to infuse volatility in the financial markets and produce some trading opportunities around Gold.
While on one hand countries; like UAE, Russia is selling gold to support the war, countries like China are piling up their reserves.
China’s gold imports rose to 162 tonnes in March, the highest since March 2024. That marks the third consecutive monthly increase. Year-to-date, China has imported roughly 365 tonnes of gold.
Beyond private imports, the central bank is also active. China’s central bank acquired 5 tonnes of gold in March, the highest monthly addition since February 2025. That brings the 17th consecutive monthly purchase, and total official holdings have reached a record 2,313 tonnes.
If tensions escalate further, safe-haven demand will return to gold and silver with force. The China stockpiling story is a slow-burn bull case. A Middle East escalation would be an instant catalyst. For now, precious metals are resting. But the data says the next leg higher is a matter of when, not if.
As of now the world awaits more clarity on the war front. The longer this standoff continues, the worse the effect on the global economy and the greater the risk that a spark will reignite a full-scale war in the Gulf, with the US carrying out its threat to hit Iran’s power plants and Iran retaliating against its neighbouring Arab Gulf states.
Undoubtedly, such a situation has raised questions over the validity of the de-escalation efforts made by both the U.S. and Iran, despite the postponement of peace talks, even without any fixed date line, while both countries are crossing the red lines defined by them for each other