In the previous session, gold prices were tailored into a tight range as investors and bullion dealers in India were caught up between pressure from prospects of higher interest rates and support from recession risks. While the bull camp can periodically seize control, the gold market has been unable to throw off a recent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, and more importantly, prices have not shown a definitive bullish sensitivity to the classic bullish developments.
With gold periodically lifted by economic uncertainty, yesterday’s stronger-than-expected US durable goods readings tampered with uncertainty and likely caused some long liquidation yesterday. Going forward, seeing positive US economic data released on the tail of the solid and durable goods report potentially rekindling widespread expectations of a 75-basis point rate hike next month and would likely prompt a fresh wave of long liquidation/fresh selling in gold and silver. Therefore, gold and silver remain under a liquidation watch.
The price of the yellow metal has been mostly rangebound for June, which has made for shorter-term two-way business between the final weeks of the month between $1,848 and $1,820 in the main. However, rather than rebounding from down here, the price is starting to eat into liquidity below with bulls checked by gains in the US dollar and inflationary pressures that are running at a 40-year high. Higher US yields, as a consequence, are detrimental to the yellow metal since gold does not offer investors and bullion dealers in India any yield.
That said, the gold traders and gold dealers in India should keep their eyes on the monetary policy discussions among the central bankers from the US, the UK, and the European Union (EU) at the ECB Forum seem for a fresh impulse. The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for Q1 2022, expected to remain unchanged at 5.1%, could entertain traders.
The US Federal Reserve policymakers promised further rapid interest-rate hikes to bring down high inflation on Tuesday. Still, they pushed back against growing fears among investors, gold dealers in India and economists whose sharp higher borrowing costs will trigger a steep downturn.
Although gold is seen as an inflation hedge, higher interest rates and bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which yields no interest. It is worth noting that the latest weakness in the macro data joins inflation fears and geopolitical tussles surrounding Russia and China to amplify the risk of economic slowdown.
After peaking at the more tremendous highs from earlier in the year, gold prices have now been weighed down by a strong US dollar. But markets continue to remain optimistic and expect the gold price to rise by the end of the year- thanks to high inflation, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the threat of recession. So, hopefully, gold awaits to enter the bulls by the end of 2022.